Post Analysis of the 2010 Washington Election

This last election was incredibly brutal for Democrats - one only has to look at the incredible gain of 63 seats by Republicans in the House of Representatives and a moderate gain of 6 seats in the Senate. However, the wave's effect on Washington and the West Coast were largely muted. Of all the House seats in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Nevada, only three were picked up by Republicans - One in Washington, Nevada, and Idaho. No West Coast state saw a senatorial position change hands (despite two very close races) and on the gubernatorial side, there was actually a net gain of one Democrat (California).

Moving back to Washington..... Three-term senator Patty Murray (D) managed to pull off a victory for her fourth term in a tough election cycle - one that easily could have gone Republican. Her opponent was Republican Dino Rossi, a well liked moderate who served in the state senate and also ran two extremely close campaigns for the governors position. Arguably, there really isn't a better candidate for Republicans to run and win in Washington, since no conservative Republican would be able to appeal to the fair sized number of independents in Western Washington and the increasing number of centrist Republicans in the Spokane area.

Rossi's only problem is that people have seen him come close, but still fail to win an election, twice. The effect that this creates is that instead of the voters seeing "the new comer" vs. "the institution", they see perennial loser vs. perennial winner. In addition, the much more conservative Eastern Washington, where a majority of the Tea Party activism existed did not get their candidate, Clint Didier. When he lost in the primaries, Rossi did not win Tea Party support, so even though it was an incredibly Republican year, as I said earlier, that wave that hit Washington was in a much more muted form. Finally, Murray was not with inexperience or a large base of support. Together with big name politicians - President Obama came by twice, Vice President Biden once, and First Lady Michelle once. She effectively managed to energize the deeply Democratic King county. Originally, turnout there was expected to be around 66-67%, however it turned out to be over 71%, higher than the state average. By the end of election day, it became pretty clear that Murray had secured a fourth term - infact it is a general rule that for a state election, a Republican most win 40% in King county and Snohomish, Kitsap, and Pierce counties by meaningful margins. Rossi ended up winning only aroung 35% in King, and barely winning Pierce county. Murray barely won Kitsap, but had a more meaningful lead of 52% in Snohomish county. This is not to say that if things had gone differently, Murray would still have won the election.

Tomorrow I'll be going over Washington re-districting. In addition, President Obama will be releasing the new 2010 Census numbers, so we will see what states gain/lose districts. Washington may gain one, Oregon has a chance too, especially if Washington does not, but that is less likely. Anyway, it shall be interesting too see what happends. : )

-Nicholas